⚠ total_sources < 10,000 — GSCI value may be unreliable due to GDELT ingestion gaps, holiday effect, or crawler outages.
GDELT · CAMEO · Daily · Open Source
Global Severity-weighted Conflict Index (GSCI)
An event-based daily measure of global conflict intensity constructed from GDELT CAMEO-coded events, weighted by Goldstein severity scores and source-share normalized.
Data updated weekly · Events curated by Claude AI
Please independently verify details via source links
Latest Value
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30-Day Change
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vs. 30 days prior
Sample Mean
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Mar 2015 – present
1-Year Peak
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trailing 12 months
Observations
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Daily records
GSCI · Daily Index Value
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Data Quality Notice — Source Count Variability
The GSCI denominator Nt (total daily news sources) can vary substantially, potentially distorting index values on low-coverage dates. Days where total_sources < 10,000 are highlighted in amber on the chart when the Low Src toggle is enabled.
Known causes of abnormally low total_sources values:
Holiday Effect — news production declines on public holidays globally, reducing GDELT ingestion volume.
GDELT Crawler Outages — GDELT's documentation notes occasional 12–24 hour data gaps due to Google Cloud sync delays or external crawl rate-limit events.
Major News Crowding — a dominant breaking story can crowd out other coverage, compressing source distribution.
Deduplication & Versioning Changes — GDELT's internal deduplication logic or versioning updates can cause step-changes in reported source counts.
GSCI values on flagged dates should be interpreted with caution. For robust analysis, consider excluding days where total_sources falls below an appropriate threshold for your use case.
Index Construction
GSCI aggregates CAMEO-coded conflict events from GDELT, retaining only events with strictly negative Goldstein scores. Each event is weighted by its absolute severity and normalized by total daily news sources.
GSCIt = Σi∈Ct |Gi| × Si,t / Nt
Ct = conflict events on day t (Goldstein < 0)
|Gi| = absolute Goldstein severity weight
Si,t = sources reporting event i on day t
Nt = total daily news sources